Sat. Feb 8th, 2025

NEW YORK, Pesisirnasional.com- Harga minyak naik ke tingkat tertinggi dalam lebih dari sebulan pada akhir perdagangan Kamis (30/8) atau Jumat (31/8) pagi WIB. Lonjakan harga minyak ini dipicu terganggunya pasokan minyak mentah dari Iran dan Venezuela dan setelah persediaan AS menurun.

Harga minyak mentah AS, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) untuk pengiriman Oktober naik 0,74 dolar AS menjadi menetap di 70,25 dolar AS per barel di New York Mercantile Exchange. Sementara itu, minyak mentah Brent untuk pengiriman Oktober bertambah 0,63 dolar AS menjadi 77,77 dolar AS per barel di London ICE Futures Exchange.

Kedua kontrak berjangka mencapai tertinggi dalam lebih dari satu bulan. “Reli yang dimulai pada awal perdagangan mengalami akselerasi sehingga minyak mentah AS naik di atas 70 dolar AS per barel, dan lebih banyak spekulan memasuki pasar,” kata Bob Yawger, direktur berjangka di Mizuho di New York.

“Ada beberapa ‘tailwinds’ (kondisi atau situasi yang akan membantu menggerakkan pertumbuhan lebih tinggi) yang bagus di sini yang akan membuat orang-orang bergabung,” kata dia menambahkan.

Melebarnya premi Brent terhadap WTI kemungkinan akan mendorong ekspor minyak mentah AS. “Ini membuat persediaan AS lebih rendah dan meningkatkan aktivitas setelah data persediaan mingguannya turun,” ujar Yawger.

Brent telah meningkat hampir 10 persen selama dua minggu terakhir karena meluasnya persepsi bahwa pasar minyak global semakin ketat. Selain pasokannya bisa semakin berkurang dalam beberapa bulan ke depan, karena sanksi-sanksi AS membatasi ekspor minyak mentah dari Iran.

“Ada banyak faktor yang mendukung di sini,” kata John Kilduff, mitra di Again Capital Management di New York.

Selain dukungan dari peristiwa geopolitik, menurut Kilduff, bencana alam dapat berdampak pada pasar jika badai potensial saat ini di lepas pantai Afrika menguat dan menuju ke Teluk Meksiko.

“Pasar minyak sekali lagi sedang mengetat,” kata Giovanni Staunovo, analis bank Swiss, UBS di Zurich.

“Penurunan ekspor minyak Iran sudah terlihat jelas sebelum sanksi-sanksi AS terkait minyak, yang mulai berlaku pada November.”

Ekspor minyak mentah Iran kemungkinan akan turun menjadi sedikit lebih dari dua juta barel per hari (bph) pada Agustus, dibandingkan tertinggi 3,1 juta barel per hari pada April, karena para importir tunduk pada tekanan Amerika untuk memangkas pesanan mereka.

Kepala pemasaran minyak milik negara Irak SOMO, Alaa al-Yasiri, mengatakan pada Rabu (29/8) bahwa Organisasi Negara-negara Pengekspor Minyak (OPEC), di mana Iran adalah produsen terbesar ketiga, akan bertemua pada Desember mendatang. OPEC akan membahas apakah mereka dapat mengkompensasi penurunan tak terduga dalam pasokan Iran setelah sanksi dimulai pada November.

Ekspor minyak mentah dari negara-negara anggota OPEC yang dilanda krisis Venezuela juga merosot tajam, berkurang separuhnya dalam beberapa tahun terakhir menjadi sekitar satu juta barel per hari.

Badan Energi Internasional (IEA) telah memperingatkan tentang pengetatan pasar menjelang akhir tahun, karena penurunan pasokan di negara-negara seperti Iran dan Venezuela dikombinasikan dengan permintaan yang kuat, terutama di Asia. “Pasti ada kekhawatiran bahwa pasar minyak dapat mengetat menjelang akhir tahun ini,” kata Direktur Eksekutif IEA Fatih Birol kepada Reuters, Rabu (29/8).

Analis minyak global BNP Paribas, Harry Tchilinguirian, menyoroti kombinasi dari risiko-risiko pasokan. “Ketika ekspor minyak Iran hilang di pasar, produksi Venezuela terus menurun, Angola berjuang untuk mempertahankan produksi dan Libya tunduk pada penghentian operasi episodik (tak terduga),” katanya kepada Reuters Global Oil Forum.

“Jalur paling sedikit resisten (untuk harga), setidaknya dalam pandangan kami, sudah habis.”

Namun, pasar bisa menghadapi tantangan baru dari ketidakpastian tentang pertumbuhan di pasar negara-negara berkembang, kata Kilduff dari Again Capital. “Apa yang sedang menahan kami adalah kekhawatiran permintaan. Kami pikir Argentina sedang menyelesaikan sesuatu dan itu adalah faktor pengurang.”

Bank sentral Argentina pada Kamis (30/8) menaikkan suku bunga acuannya menjadi 60 persen dari 45 persen dalam upaya untuk mengendalikan inflasi berjalan lebih dari 31 persen, karena mata uang negara itu jatuh 15,6 persen ke rekor terendah 39 peso per dolar AS. (rci/red)

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